Analysis and Prediction of Poyang Lake’s Navigable Conditions under a New Hydrological Regime

Human activities have profoundly changed the hydrological regime and trends of rivers lakes, which, in turn, has affected utilization their navigable conditions. However, few studies focused on effects changes regimes lakes Thus, this study intensively analyzes investigates depth at major control sections lake area during dry season period before 2002, when Three Gorges Reservoir was not yet constructed, from 2003 to 2019, Project put into operation with impoundment based dry-season water level curve Poyang Lake since Reservoir. This also further influence change area. The results show that waterway width could meet navigation requirements 2002. From whereas a 98% guarantee rate duration Xingzi Hydrometric Station decreased, Hukou increased. both hydrometric stations size Grade II waterways. performs simulation prediction under new using mathematical model sediment Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. reveal 2030 2050, after been for 30–50 years, levels Hukou, Xingzi, Wucheng (Hukou) will decline by approximately 0.18–0.66 0.10–0.24 m, respectively. Although overall can basically time, trend long-term declining may cause unsafe risks.